THE BLIZZARD HAS ENDED, BUT WE WILL BE FEELING ITS EFFECTS FOR QUITE A WHILE
(updated Saturday February 7th at 9:00pm)

It is safe to say that most of South Jersey saw at least a foot of snow. Many residents were left with closer to 2'. We have still not received any 30" reports, but it would not be surprising to see at least a couple! Lots of folks have sent in photos, and I invite you to check those out here on our weather page. And, if you have photos, you can click the link below the photo to send your own!

Power outages are still widespread across Cape May County. Conditions across South Jersey are beginning to improve out on the roads, and of course, the sunshine Sunday helped morale significantly! But, into the overnight Sunday and early Monday, there will still be concerns, and some very dangerous spots on the roads due to ice formation. So, on your way to work Monday morning, be extremely careful! Most schools across the area are opening late, or are already closed, you can see a full list on the homepage of our website. Tomorrow will be another sunny day, although very cold. Highs will remain near 30, but it will feel more like 20 at best when the wind chills are factored in. Winds will continue to be offshore from the northwest at 10-15mph.

Then, things get a little more interesting. Tuesday will see high pressure persisting for the morning, allowing for partly sunny skies to start the day, but into the afternoon, clouds will increase as some wet weather moves in. This is still looking like it will be a tricky forecasting situation, since we will be right along the rain/snow line. At this point, it is looking like we will see some rain and sleet, then it will switch over to some snow into Wednesday. We could see some accumulation, even amounts that would normall be big news, but nothing compared to the weekend storm. But, if the snow line moves a little further to the north, we could be seeing much more snow. Most of North Jersey and even back through Philly could see the snow, but I think we will have some mixing issues preventing us from seeing all snow, and therefore receiving the accumulations that are expected elsewhere.

Of course, we will continue to keep a very close eye on this next storm!

Be careful out there, and try to enjoy the snow!

-Monica Ott

FEBRUARY BLIZZARD RAGES ON, WITH THUNDERSNOW, BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, 40+MPH WIND GUSTS SO FAR, 6-12" OF SNOW AND CONTINUING TO PILE UP SHORE AND MAINLAND ALIKE
(updated Saturday February 6th at 6:00am)

So how are you holding up South Jersey. It's just before sunrise as I type this, and I've been up most of the night following what has been to this point an impressive storm outside our Linwood studios, with at least 10" on the ground already, whiteouts at times, and yes, I've heard a few rumbles of thundersnow come through with the more intense snow bands within the last few hours. So let's review, and look ahead to what's still in store...
---Generally 7-14" of snow has fallen so far, with most places averaging close to a foot by now. The snow is very heavy and wet with a high water content, quite the opposite of the dry powder with the high fluff factor we had last weekend. The gusty winds are causing drifting of the snow despite its heavy nature, and drifts to 2 feet plus have been reported.
---Over 50,000 customers, most in Cape May county where 33% of the county's customers don't have power as I type this, have lost electricity. And I imagine that number will only climb as the snow continues to fall. The immense weight of the snow, coupled with 40+mph wind gusts, is bringing down trees and power lines throughout the entire area, and more will likely fall soon...
---It's been all snow so far, with temps fairly close to 32 degrees for most throughout the storm to this point. Temps will remain here through this morning as the storm makes its closest approach, and then fall back slowly during the day as colder air wraps around our slowly departing low pressure. That means the snow will become a bit more powdery in nature as the day wears on. I guess that's good news in terms of lessening the weight of the snow, but less weight promotes more blowing and drifting as the winds stay active.
---I'm updating on Twitter and have been all night, and you can follow me at nbc40weather for the latest updates. Im working on a longer discussion here, and hope to have one on soon.

---Dan Skeldon



SOUTH JERSEY SNOW LOVERS REJOICE! A PARADE OF POTENTIAL SNOWFALLS LINED UP ONE AFTER ANOTHER THROUGH NEXT WEEK
(updated Wednesday February 3rd at 6:45am)

As a meteorologist, my job is to try to forecast the oftentimes challenging and fickle South Jersey weather. Now we admittedly don't have control over the weather, as the occasional blown forecast will attest to. But "if" I could somehow manage to shape what type of weather we could have, I'd draw up a weather pattern quite close to the one we find ourselves in the midst of right now. I make no secret about the fact that, as a native New Englander, I am an avid snow lover, one who has been starved for a good, old-fashioned snowy and cold winter over my 6 comparitively snowless years here in South Jersey. And over my first six winters here at the shore, I can't remember a pattern that has a parade of potential snowfalls, some light, some heavy, all lined up one after another. And that's just what we have in store, with that parade beginning last weekend with the 6-10" of snow last Saturday(and yes, that was more than many of us, including myself, had bargained for). While I won't call the light snow event overnight Tuesday through sunrise Wednesday a snow "storm", the 1-3" of snow that most of us saw freshened up our snowpack, and think of it as an "appetizer" to the main course that may be on the way by the weekend. That's right! Yet another potentially strong, high impact, and disruptive winter storm is in the cards from late Friday through the better part of Saturday. That storm, and whatever wintry weather it brings our way, will be followed by a reinforcing shot of arctic air for late in the weekend and early next week, which will in turn set the stage for yet another winter storm threat, this one long about next Tuesday or Wednesday! So snow lovers, it doesn't get much better than this here in our neck of the woods! And for the many who have already had their fill of the dreaded "white stuff", cringe when they see the latest seven day forecast, and pray for an early spring, well you may be out of luck for the better part of February. My colleague Punxsutawney Phil confidently forecasted six more weeks of winter on Groundhog Day, and I couldn't agree with him more. A cold and potentially very snowy first half of February may lead to a less snowy but more cold second half of the month, but in the short term, let's take each snow threat one at at time until the parade finally comes to an end, somewhere down the road.

So with our weekend before Christmas Blizzard, and the start of this most recent run of snow threats, South Jersey is actually ahead of many typically snowier northern locales as far as seasonal snow goes so far this winter. Case in point, most of us have had more snow this winter than places like (my hometown)Providence(RI), Hartford (CT), Albany(NY), Newark(NJ), Reading(PA), and New York City(NY). And as the next few storms line up and prepare to strike, it looks like they will follow the pattern set forth by their predecessors, and that the Mid-Atlantic will fare better in terms of snow totals than places farther north. Now that being said, I do think the next storm in line, the one for this Friday into Saturday, will manage to have more of an impact on North Jersey, New York City, southern New England, and folks north and west of I-95 in PA than previous storms have had. So let me devote the rest of this discussion to our next significant winter weather threat, and save any discussion on future storms until the one most immediately in front of us has passed.

On-deck for later Friday afternoon, and especially Friday night into Saturday and early Saturday night, is what will probably be a significant winter storm for a large part of the Mid-Atlantic, on both sides of the Mason Dixon line. Now the jury is still out as to the exact impact this storm will have on South Jersey, as the main question revolves around the rain/snow line, and just how close it will be to us, specifically the immediate coastline from Atlantic City towards lower Cape May county. So as far as what I know, or at least am pretty certain of, I think clouds thicken up fairly quickly on Friday, snow develops by Friday evening, and becomes heavy at times Friday night into the better part of Saturday before tapering off overnight Saturday. Winds will be a player as a coastal low pressure off of Cape Hatteras really cranks up, moves north for a brief time, and then hooks east-northeast out to sea, off to our south and east. This type of track should be familiar, as it has been present with many of our storms so far this winter. The reason for the eastward hook, instead of a steady north or northeastward lift up and along and closer to the coast, is due to the a large "block", or meteorological traffic jam, that has been in place most of the winter over the North Atlantic, let's say near Greenland and Iceland. That block forces storms to detour around it, hence the more out to sea solutions we've been seeing this winter instead of the up the coast option. That's important for South Jersey snow lovers for a few reasons. First, it keeps the cold air locked in place, and also keeps the heaviest precip centered over us and areas along and south of the Mason Dixon line. Next, it keeps the warm ocean air from really having a major impact on precip type, and therefore limits any extended changeover to sleet or rain that we normally see with closer-to-the-coast coastal storms. Now this storm is expected to take a track similar to the one set forth by this winter's climaotology so far, but "may" try to come just far enough north to allow some mixing issues to have more of an impact on our forecast than in previous storms. Either way, this is a significant and high impact storm with strong winds and heavy accumulating snow. But, if rain and sleet mix in for a short time or a longer time, that will significantly cut down on accumulations, especially right along the shore and the farther south and east you go where the mixing threat is more of a possibility.

Now it's too early to talk accumulations, since there are more questions than answers right now regarding the evolution of this impending storm. And as we learned this past weekend, a shift of even 50 miles or so can make a HUGE difference in the expected outcome of a forecast. I do think that there will be an axis of 12-18"(with locally higher amounts to 20"+) with this storm, and that axis will run from West Virginia through northern Virginia, the Baltimore, Washington, and Philadelphia I95 corridor, and into southern and central Jersey(NOT encompassing all of those areas, but that's your window where the heaviest axis may lie). So IF, and that is a big IF so let me say it again, IF this is all snow for us, which is more likely to be the case on the mainland, then a foot of snow is POSSIBLE and certainly not out of the question. And IF sleet or rain mixes in, especially along the shore and towards lower Cape May county, then those accumulation numbers will probably be cut down to the 6" neighborhood. If that mixing issue comes to fruition, it would probably be a case where we start as snow later Friday, go over to sleet and rain(or a wintry mix) later Friday night, and then back over the snow on Saturday. It's the back end, or wrap-around snow, that could drop a quick 6" of snow and make up for any snow lost during any potential changeover. So a few inches before, then a sloppy and slushy mess, then 6 fresh inches on top, could be a possible setup if the rain/snow line is a factor here in South Jersey. If not, watch out, for it's all snow, it's a lot of snow, and it's a heavier, wetter snow than that beautiful fresh powder we had this past weekend. It's more of a back-breaking snow that's much more difficult to shovel, so now the question becomes how much will we be shoveling? Hopefully, details will soon work themselves out. The key remember is just how far north our low can get as it emerges off Cape Hatteras, before eventually bending and hooking its way off to the east. I think if you're in interior South Jersey or all of central Jersey right down to the coast in LBI points north, this is all or mostly snow and a foot or more. From a Brigantine to Woodbine line points south and east, it COULD be a foot or more IF all snow, or a few inches, then slop, then 6" more. Living on the edge again just like last weekend, but instead of the northern edge of the storm altogether, this time we're on the southern edge of the heaviest snows, and the edge of the rain/snow line. Fun forecasting lies ahead yet again, so stay tuned!

---Thanks for stopping by South Jersey! If you're a snow lover, join me in a chorus of 'Let it Snow'! If not, then think warm thoughts towards Spring, which is now 48 days away!

---Dan Skeldon