Good Tuesday morning to you, South Jersey! Let's not waste too much time and get right to the short term forecast, shall we? A flash flood watch is in effect for the entire Garden State through 6am tomorrow morning. This comes as a cold front to our west slowly trudges to the east. Ahead of it, we'll see a mix of hazy sunshine and cloud cover through the morning and the first part of the afternoon. Highs today should be a near copy of what we had seen yesterday...so upper 80s on the mainland and near 80 degrees along the beaches and boardwalks. A strong southerly flow both at the surface (South winds today will range in the 15 to 20mph field) and further up in the atmosphere will feed plenty of moist air into the regionIf we see more sunshine, we'll warm up a few more degrees, but we'll also become more unstable later this evening. We'll keep a close eye on the second half of the day and the night tonight, as the SPC does have the entire region listed under a "Slight Risk" for severe weather through the night. The primary concerns with any storm that pops us are strong winds and heavy rain (Hence the flash flood watch). Please be aware of any severe weather updates from your NBC40 weather team as we go through the night. Our best chance to see stronger thunderstorms would be beyond the 5pm mark, though a rouge shower or storm cannot be ruled out. Outside of this rather unsettled weather, we're cloudy and warm with lows in the low 70s and a south wind at 5 to 15mph.
We'll gradually transition to a more favorable weather regime through the day tomorrow. Since this cold front is slow to depart, we'll keep the chance for some morning rain in the forecast before phasing those chances out through the afternoon. High pressure will build into the Northeast behind this front and dry us out before clearing us out later in the evening and through the night. Temperatures take a small step backwards on the mainland...into the mid 80s...while the coast remains on either side of 80 degrees with a west-northwest wind at 10mph. Dew points will drop from the mid 70s today to the mid 60s tomorrow, and it should drop even further through the rest of the work week. Thursday and Friday are my pick days of the week, as they combine sunshine with seasonably warm temperatures and low humidity. Highs should range in the low to mid 80s on the mainland and upper 70s on the coast.
We have been rather lucky to have a streak of great weekends like the one we just had. In fact, it's been nine straight weekends where, more or less, the weather has been dry and pleasant. If the long term forecast holds as it does, however, that streak may be in jeopardy. While Saturday should be dry (If not cloudier), Sunday holds the potential for some unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms. This hinges on the progression of a cold front, and if the front is slower to arrive, then we'll keep the streak going. For now, I'll leave the mention for the chance of some rain, but this is subject to change. Highs for both days range in the mid 80s on the mainland and near 80 degrees on the coast.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt