Good Tuesday morning to you, South Jersey! Monday's weather was just about as good as it could get while still staying seasonably warm. With temperatures near average for this time of year and dew points just under the 60 degree mark, we didn't have all that much in the way of humidity to contend with. Today...and the two days afterwards...will be a different story. High pressure to the southeast, centered just off the North Carolina coast, will continue to move towards the island of Bermuda. This sets up a near classic example of a Bermuda high situation: High pressure centers itself near the previously named island, placing the Mid-Atlantic squarely within the influence of its return flow. Once a warm front lifts up to our north, the proverbial door will be opened for this surge of warm, southerly air to move right into our region. There may also be a very isolated shower or storm today, but we should stay mainly dry overall. We'll begin to feel it today on the mainland especially, but the coast should be cooler...for now. Highs toe the line of 90 degrees through the mainland, with higher chances to see 90 the further west you go. The coast "only" gets into the upper 70s with a developing sea breeze. South-southwest winds will range from 5 to 15mph. On top of the very warm air temperatures, dew points will hover near 70 degrees, creating a very soupy air mass. Heat indices will trend in the mid 90s on the mainland, and on top of this, there is an air quality alert for the entire state due to high pollutant concentrations in the atmosphere. We don't receive a break tonight, as warmth and humidity remain in place. Lows only drop into the low 70s across the board with a light south wind.
If we don't reach 90 degrees today, we'll have an even better chance to do so tomorrow. High pressure continues to migrate eastward, and our southwesterly flow intensifies. This brings in even more warm air from the Gulf of Mexico region and even more moist and unstable air as well. This all comes in as a cold front to the north slowly begins to sag to the southeast. The morning should remain dry, but as we reach the afternoon, we may need to keep an eye out for some scattered thunderstorms that may pop up with the wealth of warmth and instability in place. A few of these storms could pack stronger winds and heavier downpours. Highs climb into the low to mid 90s on the mainland and upper 80s on the coast with a west wind at 10 to 15mph. The cold front is expected to pass later on Thursday, so we'll likely squeeze one more hot, humid, and unsettled day into the short term forecast. Scattered thunderstorms are possible once again in the evening. Otherwise, highs creep towards 90 degrees once more on the mainland and upper 70s on the coast.
There is a break in the action, and while it's a one day break that arrives on Friday, it's still something to look forward to. High pressure to our north will nudge down to the south, clearing us out for a little while and drop the air temperature along with the dew point. Highs return to average levels...low 80s on the mainland and mid to upper 70s on the coast. From here, the $64,000 question is simple: Where does the frontal boundary stall? It's not a matter of if, it's where. Should high pressure act as a good enough forcing mechanism, we'll remain dry this weekend. If not, our stationary front ends up closer to the region, giving us a chance for isolated thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday. For now, I'll leave a mention for the latter until we get a little closer to the weekend and get a better view of the situation. Highs hold in the low 80s on the mainland and mid 70s on the coast.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt