Good Wednesday morning to you, South Jersey, and Happy Hump Day as well! Even if you are a winter weather fan like myself, you have to at least agree on one thing: Being able to get outside yesterday without bundling up was a refreshing change of pace. With high temperatures approaching 70 degrees yesterday (Something that hasn't been seen since...ironically enough...the first two days of the winter season), it was a mid-spring preview of the best variety. We get another version of a spring preview today, but what we see won't be as enjoyable overall. While the day itself is mostly dry, we must keep an eye on a developing low pressure system that will move to the east-northeast and through the Northeast. We find ourselves well within the warm sector of this storm, while much of New England braces for a major late season winter storm. Since we remain rather warm, with highs expected to climb into the mid 60s again on the mainland (The coast may only reach the upper 50s with a cooling southeast wind at 15mph in place), our main moisture threat is rain. Our best chance for some showers comes around later this evening towards sunset as a cold front approaches. Any breaks in the cloud cover today will not only heat us up a bit more, but it will also help destabilize the air...allowing for a better chance at some thunderstorm activity as well. I don't think we run a significant risk for severe thunderstorms (That risk remains confined to the I-95 corridor near D.C.), but gustier winds and heavier rain is still possible if a storm rolls through. Once this cold front passes, get ready for a blast of cold air. Temperatures will free fall through the night as winds shift from the south to the northwest and pick up in intensity. A wind advisory is in place from 6pm through 11am tomorrow due to northwest winds at 25 to 30mph with gusts approaching 45 to 50mph. Please be sure to secure anything that may be outside. Lows tonight will plummet into the mid 20s before only reaching the low 30s tomorrow for high temperatures. We may see temperature swings of up to 40 degrees between what we saw on Tuesday and what can be seen on Thursday, and that's not even counting the wind chill factor, which is expected to be in the low teens.
Thankfully, things calm down and temperatures warm up a bit through Friday and more so on Saturday. The end of the work week should remain just as sunny as Thursday, but temperatures should also be able to rebound into the mid 40s as winds calm down and shift to a slightly warmer westerly direction. A weak cold front will approach the region on Saturday, allowing temperatures to climb into the mid 50s across the board. It does, however, also come with some increased cloud cover. This is a moisture starved front, so I don't expected anything in the way of showers as it passes on Saturday night. Cooler air filters southward (again) on Sunday, but we should be able to handle mid to upper 40s under partly sunny skies. That brings us to Monday, where we keep an eye on the potential for some rather unsettled weather in the form of rain and snow. The international models (Canadian and Euro) are beginning to key in on a low pressure system coming up the coast, giving the region at least a glancing blow with some mixed precipitation. The American model (GFS) is still out to lunch and shows nothing. With this said, I'll at least keep the mention for some rain and/or snow on Monday, but this is six days out and still subject to change due to the large disagreement between model camps. Highs will continue to slide into the low 40s on Monday and upper 30s by Tuesday when high pressure returns.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt