Good Tuesday morning to you, South Jersey! As if things couldn't get any better for us weather wise, we reach what is shaping up to be the warmest day of the year so far (Granted, it's only March 11th, and we aren't even officially in the spring season). With a warm front well to our north, high pressure to our south and east, and an approaching cold front that is still a decent bit away, we have several sources for our plume of warm air. Speaking of plumes, a plume of cloud cover, with origins in central Virginia, has kept the region under a rather stubborn cloud deck so far this morning. This should eventually dissipate, giving way to partly sunny skies through the afternoon. High temperatures today will easily soar into the mid 60s on the mainland and hover near 60 degrees on the coast. West winds will be light at 5 to 10mph. A sea breeze may be able to develop and overcome this westerly breeze, so we'll have to keep a close eye on coastal temperatures (Remember, water temperatures are still just under 40 degrees). Speaking of 40 degrees, lows tonight will hover near that mark under increasing cloudiness. Winds should also remain light, but they'll be out of a cooler southeasterly direction at 5 to 10mph. This brings us to Wednesday, where we keep a close eye on an approaching low pressure system from the west. While temperatures in our region will remain well above freezing (Highs should range in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees across the board), colder temperatures will help create a strong potential for a major winter storm through interior New England. Most of the day should remain dry with mostly cloudy skies, but once we get towards sunset, we see our chances for some rainfall increase. We also have the chance to have a thunderstorm or two roll through the region, but those chances hinge on how much instability is available in the atmosphere. If we can clear out a bit in the afternoon, our chances increase. If not, they decrease.
Either way, temperatures will drop sharply once this low and its associated cold front leave the region. High pressure builds into the Northeast for Thursday and Friday, but it's Thursday and Thursday night that hold the coldest air that we've seen in a while. Highs for the day may struggle to get out of the mid 30s despite plentiful sunshine through much of the day. It will also be rather windy, with northwest winds remaining rather gusty wherever you may be. Needless to say, wind chills will be in place, and they will be rather cold. After a night in the teens on the mainland (The coast may be able to stay in the low 20s on Thursday night), we begin another rebound on the thermometer. Friday is still below average, but with high pressure drifting eastward, winds will swing to a more westerly direction, warming us up into the mid 40s. Mid 50s are likely on Saturday ahead of a weak cold front that will pass through the region and should only bring some extra cloud cover with it. We're back in the mid to upper 40s on Sunday, but the dry weather continues. Our focus then shifts to Monday, where the models have been flip-flopping on a potential low pressure system that could give us some rain and snow on St. Patrick's Day. As of this morning, it's the Canadian model that delivers a hit, while the Euro and American models deliver a miss. It's still 7 days out, so there is plenty of time to keep an eye on things.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt