Good Monday morning to you, South Jersey! I hope you all were able to enjoy the weekend. Speaking of this past weekend, we saw something that had not been seen since roughly 10am on the 21st: An above freezing temperature. Yep, Atlantic City Intl. Airport registered a 33 degree temperature at 7pm on Sunday, breaking the streak of days at or below 32 degrees at 5 days. In fact, we reached 37 degrees just before midnight, and temperatures have continued to climb into this morning. This bubble of warm air, however, is set to burst later this morning and into the early afternoon. The proverbial needle to cause this burst is a cold front that is marching eastward through Pennsylvania and eventually through the region. Temperatures ahead of this front are still warm thanks to a southerly flow aloft and at the surface. Until this front passes, we'll watch temperatures climb into the low 40s for highs on the mainland and coast with a south wind at 10 to 15mph under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Once this front passes later this morning, however, we'll climb down the thermometer once more. A few isolated sprinkles are possible as this front passes, though I think we'll stay mainly dry. We won't, however, avoid the chill. Temperatures will fall through the 30, 20, and teens going into the overnight period. A shift in our winds from the south and southwest to the northwest will only aid in bringing in more cold air from Canada as high pressure plunges southward. Lows will bottom out near 10 degrees...cooler on the mainland, warmer on the coast. When a northwest wind at 10 to 20mph is factored into the equation, wind chill values will likely fall below zero. We'll have to wait and see if the NWS issues a wind chill advisory or not (Forecasted wind chills would need to reach and dip lower than -10 degrees for this). While Tuesday will see a bit more sunshine, it will do little to warm us up. Highs will hover on either side of 20 degrees across the board with wind chills in the single digits thanks to a northwest wind at 15mph.
Wednesday holds our next forecasting conundrum. A developing area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico region will get itself organized a bit, traverse the Southeast (Giving folks down there a rather rare winter storm opportunity), and make a northeasterly turn along a cold front. From here, the models are on a complete 50/50 split. One camp keeps this low and its associated shield of snowfall far enough off the coastline where the middle of the week is just cold, dry, and partly sunny with highs in the low to mid 20s. The latest trend in a few other camps, however, has been to take the track a bit further to the west and bring it closer to the coast. The end result here would be a chance of some snow showers...especially the closer to the coastline you are. Forecasted accumulations also vary widely in this train of thought...from a dusting or so, an inch or two, and everything in-between. Your NBC40 weather team will keep an eye on any developing trends with the upcoming afternoon and overnight model runs. What does appear to be more certain is a much needed and highly anticipated warm-up. It isn't a drastic one...this is a slow but steady process that begins on Thursday and goes into the weekend. The last two days of the work week will both see highs in the low to mid 30s (Warmer on Friday) under partly to mostly sunny skies. The weekend will likely be warmer than that as we watch a warm front lift to the north. How much warmer we get depends on how far north this front can push. For now, highs on either side of 40 degrees is likely, though a rain or snow shower is also possible on Saturday afternoon.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt