Good Tuesday morning to you, South Jersey! Fans of cooler weather, take heed to this forecast. If you have enjoyed the above average temperatures that we've seen as a whole this month, however, you might want to sit this one out beyond today's forecast. Through the first three weeks of October, we've been roughly three degrees above average when you look at high temperatures...a lot of that has to do with the historic stretch of six days at or above 80 degrees to kick off the month. While things have moderated overall, we have yet to feel a stronger chill in the air. That is, until now. A cold front will continue to make its way towards the east coast throughout the day. It's a rather weak front with little moisture associated with it, but it's the push of cold air behind it that's worth watching. I'll get to that in more detail in a moment. For the day today, however, we remain on the warm side of that cold front with partly sunny to partly cloudy skies ahead of it. Highs will warm up to near 70 on the mainland and the upper 60s on the coast with a west wind at 5 to 15mph. Outside of increased cloud cover, this front will pass with little fanfare. Additional cloud cover is expected, as well as an isolated shower or two after midnight, as an area of low pressure moves up the cold front as it passes. Otherwise, the night should remain mainly dry, if not mostly cloudy, with lows in the upper 40s on the mainland and low 50s on the beaches. Winds will shift to the northwest following the frontal passage at 5 to 10mph. The day itself tomorrow won't be a wash-out, but scattered showers are possible through the morning and into the early afternoon hours as this low pressure system moves towards the Cape Cod region. As it does, we'll begin to feel that rather chilly air make its way into the Northeast. Between the cloud cover, the scattered showers, and the breezy northwest wind in place at 5 to 15mph, it will be a rather raw feeling day. Highs will struggle to reach the upper 50s on the mainland and coast.
High pressure will then begin to build eastward from the Great Lakes region. Depending on the location of the low as it departs, we may have a bit of a blustery day on Thursday and Friday with a decent pressure gradient in place. Regardless of the wind speed, it will be a rather chilly day for a while as we fall under the influence of a predominantly northwesterly flow both at the surface and further into the atmosphere. This will help bring even more cool air from Canada further south, and with the jet stream expected to create a large trough (or dip) overhead, plenty of chilly days and nights are ahead. High for the stretch of time from Thursday through Saturday are expected to only reach the mid to upper 50s on the mainland and the coast...this is average for mid-November! To put it into perspective, our coldest average temperature in October is 62 degrees (That comes around on Halloween). At least these coming days beyond Wednesday will also be at least partly sunny. Overnight lows are expected to drop into the 30s on the mainland, though windier conditions on Thursday and Friday night may keep things in the upper 30s at least with enough air circulation. If we get a clear and calm night here or there this upcoming weekend, patchy frost may arise, though a widespread frost or killing freeze are still a little ways off. A slight warm-up may be in the works for the start of the next work week.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt