Good Wednesday morning to you, South Jersey, and Happy Hump Day as well! Of course, it would be happier if a coastal low weren't lurking just to the south of the region. This low, comprised of the non-tropical remnants of Karen (Or as I like to call it the ghost of Karen), will slowly crawl up the Mid-Atlantic coastline before stalling just to the southeast of the Delmarva Peninsula. As of this post, any shower activity remains to the southeast of the region, but over the course of the afternoon, rainfall will begin to spread into lower Cape May county and the associated Atlantic coastal communities first. A coastal flood advisory is posted from 10am to 3pm today for this afternoon's high tide. Minor tidal flooding is expected along low lying areas due to the higher daytime tide (The overnight tide will be about a foot lower) and the stronger onshore flow coming off the ocean. Beyond the approaching rainfall, we'll be cloudy and windy with highs in the mid 60s across the board with a strong northeast wind at 20 to 25mph with gusts up to and over 40mph. While this low isn't very strong, it is a very slow mover, and its effects will be felt throughout South Jersey for several days, with the rainfall really coming into play tonight. Rain may be heavy at times with lows in the mid to upper 50s and a northeast wind at 15 to 20mph. Winds pick up again tomorrow, and the rainfall, while it won't be wall to wall rainfall (There should be some breaks here and there), will remain heavy at times through the night. There is also a coastal flood watch from 11am to 4pm for Thursday afternoon's high tide...12pm on the ocean and 1:30pm on the bays. The potential for moderate tidal flooding is present during this time period. Otherwise, it will be a similar day with highs in the mid 60s and a gusty northeast wind at 20 to 25mph.
The ghost of Karen is expected to stall due to a blocking pattern that is created by high pressure to the north and east. As a result, we'll continue to see on and off rainfall (Though I don't think it will be as heavy as what we'll see tomorrow) along with a strong onshore wind. Coastal flooding concerns will likely remain as well, though no advisories have been posted for the end of the work week as of yet. Highs for the end of the work week will reach the upper 60s for the mainland and coast under cloudy skies with showers likely and a continuing northeast wind. The weekend is a bit of a tricky call. It all depends on how quickly or slowly this coastal low moves out to sea as high pressure tries to nudge to the south. The biggest issue among the models has been the timing of this transition, with some models going as slow as a Monday departure and others as fast as a Saturday departure. I'm leading towards the former, so scattered showers are expected for Saturday and Sunday with highs near 70 degrees before a brief break comes along for Columbus Day and Tuesday. Cloud cover should remain for the most part, but it should also be drier with highs in the low 70s. From here, all eyes then shift west as a cold front approaches the coast. No rest for the weary, eh?
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt