Good Monday morning to you, South Jersey! I hope you were all able to enjoy this past weekend and be able to get outside. Yesterday marked an unprecedented sixth consecutive day at or above 80 degrees in South Jersey, and unless we are able to overcome a decent bit of cloud cover, that may very well be the last day of its kind for a while. This streak of at times summer-like weather will come to an end today and do so in a rather big way. As of this discussion, a tornado watch is in place for the entire region until 5pm. A very strong low level jet stream will create favorable conditions for strong wind shear, which in turn helps create rotation within stronger to severe thunderstorms. Best timing forecast for this as of now is between 2pm and 6pm. Please be sure to keep an eye out for any and all updates from the NBC40 weather team as well as the National Weather Service throughout the day. This all is coming around as a result of a potent cold front that will sweep through the region later this evening. Scattered showers were popping up in front of the actual frontal boundary earlier this morning, and they will continue to do so until the bulk of this system arrives later this afternoon. Despite a large area of cloud cover, a strong southerly surge of warm air will still be able to get us into the mid to upper 70s for high temperatures on the mainland and coast with a strong south wind at 15 to 20mph. Gusts can reach and exceed the 30mph mark at times as well. Once the sun sets, we should at least begin to lose some of the instability in the atmosphere, but the threat for heavier showers and a thunderstorm or two is still possible through midnight. Once this cold front passes, the clearing process will take over, and winds will shift to a cooler northerly direction. Lows will drop into the low 50s in the Pinelands and mid to upper 50s elsewhere with a north wind at 15mph.
We get a much needed break from the action tomorrow as high pressure nudges down from the north and west on Tuesday. Skies gradually clear out, and we FINALLY return to seasonable temperatures. Highs for tomorrow should only reach the 70 degree mark on the mainland and upper 60s on the coast with a northeast wind at 10 to 15mph. Wednesday through Friday fall under the same forecast (The weekend may need to be included depending on what happens later this week. I'll explain). An area of low pressure near Florida, which is likely comprised of the tattered remnants of Karen, will move to the northeast by this time. Depending on how close it gets to the coast, we may see some scattered showers in the area as a result of the northeasterly flow coming off the ocean. Otherwise, those days appear to be more dry than wet (Though this aspect of the forecast is subject to change) with highs on all three days in the upper 60s to 70 degrees on the mainland and mid to upper 60s on the coast. The weekend appears to be mainly dry for now, but if this low stalls before moving into the Canadian Maritimes, I may need to include at least Saturday into the mix for some scattered showers. Otherwise, we remain seasonably comfortable with highs in the upper 60s for both days.
Again, please be sure to stay posted here, on Facebook, on Twitter, and with the National Weather Service for any and all updates on the severe weather threat today.
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt