A Return to Seasonable Temperatures - NBC40.net

A Return to Seasonable Temperatures

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Good Thursday morning to you, South Jersey! This morning marks our third consecutive day with low temperatures in the 40s and the fifth time in the last six days that this has occurred. Today will also likely be the last night in the 40s for many of us, as warmer air will continue to filter into the region. This comes around as high pressure continues its slow crawl to the east and eventually off the coast. Winds at the surface and further up into the atmosphere will shift to a more southerly direction as they wrap around the western side of this core of high pressure. While the ensuing warm up won't be a drastic one, it will be a good deal closer to where we should be this time of year. Despite the eastward progression of this area of high pressure, skies will remain mainly sunny with highs climbing into the mid 70s on the mainland and low 70s on the coast with a light south wind at 5 to 10mph. Skies remain clear through the night tonight, and while winds also remain calm, we won't cool down as much as the last few night. It will, however, remain calm and generally comfortable with lows in the low 50s on the mainland and mid to upper 50s on the beaches. Our modest warm up continues into the end of the work week as high pressure slides further eastward. We remain mostly sunny and calm with highs in the mid to upper 70s on the mainland and low to mid 70s along the ocean and bays.

Once we reach the weekend, things change a bit. We hit our warmest portion of the extended forecast with highs approaching 80 degrees on the mainland and mid 70s on the boardwalks for both Saturday and Sunday. While both days should, for the most part, remain dry, we must keep an eye on a cold front that will approach from the west. While there is general agreement on the timing of the arrival (Saturday night), the second aspect of this passage, the timing, is still a little up in the air. A slower progression would mean a potentially soggier start to the fall season on Sunday, and that also doesn't take into consideration if the front stalls (That goes into another portion of the extended forecast). Either way, the day on Saturday remains mainly dry, but the best chance for rainfall remains within the Saturday night and Sunday morning time frame, but this may change. What is more certain is the brief break we'll receive on Monday with partly sunny skies and highs in the low 70s. Beyond this, we must keep an eye on where this front stalls as well as a developing low pressure system to the south that will use the front as a track to run up the coast. This is where another challenge comes into play. There has been a good deal of model inconsistency with how this low is handled. Latest runs are all in agreement to keep this low suppressed to the south (Leaving us with some cloud cover and some wind as well), but previous runs have flip-flopped over this...primarily the American GFS model. This is all expected to occur around Tuesday and into Wednesday morning, so there is still time to keep an eye on this and iron out any further details. For now, the extended forecast will at least have a mention of the potential for some rain with highs in the low 70s.

Have a great day!

- Meteorologist Adam Rutt

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