Good Thursday morning to you, South Jersey. Normally, I'd start with a little humorous quip about the weather, but on a day like today, I'm going to get straight to business. A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for the entire region until 11am as of this posting, but please keep in mind that this is NOT the severe weather threat that we've been talking about this week. Consider this to be a preview of sorts. A leading line of showers and thunderstorms associated with the parent low pressure system has continued to move eastward towards New Jersey over the course of the morning, and it is this line that prompted the advisory. Regardless of whether it holds together or not, this will be our first widespread chance at rain and/or thunderstorms. Otherwise, the rest of the morning and part of the afternoon remains mainly dry. A few peeks of sunshine are also possible through the afternoon, and that will have two separate effects on the weather. First, the more obvious: High temperatures will jump up a degree or two (They're forecasted in the upper 70s to near 80 on the mainland and low to mid 70s on the beaches). The second effect is an invisible one at first, but it may manifest itself later this evening. The extra heating and sunlight will also act to destabilize the atmosphere a little more, which will increase the potential for severe weather later this evening.
The time frame in question for this potentially severe weather to peak is roughly 3pm to 8pm, and it easily includes the evening commute. During this time, daytime heating is at its maximum levels, which also includes the best time for any kind of convection to occur along a warm front that we are keeping a very close eye on. It's that warm front that holds the best chance for seeing any tornadic activity. While the chances are slim (The SPC has the region under a 10% chance for tornadoes), it is still a present concern none the less. That's just one piece of this larger puzzle that we need to monitor. The second piece is the low itself. A more southerly track will allow heavier rainfall to migrate further south, while a northerly track keeps us well within the severe weather risk...though the threat for heavy rain is still present if the latter case verifies. With any thunderstorm that develops in the Mid-Atlantic (Let alone South Jersey), there is the potential for very gusty winds (This is the primary concern with any storm that arises around our area), heavy downpours, hail, and as mentioned before, an isolated tornado. Is the possibility for such severe weather present for everyone? Yes. Will everyone see it? That's not a guarantee. These kinds of weather scenarios can be rather fickle and tricky to accurately pinpoint, but we will do our best. Regardless, your NBC40 weather team will continue to monitor this evolving weather situation. You can follow all three of us on Facebook and Twitter...links to all of the pages will be provided below.
This potent area of low pressure is expected to exit out to sea by the later parts of the night tonight, but a few more showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out of the question. Conditions do begin to taper off after the midnight hour with lows dropping to near 60 degrees behind a passing cold front. Winds will also shift to the west at 10 to 15mph. A few more straggling showers may also linger into Friday morning, depending on the speed of this low's exit into the Gulf of Maine. Skies should begin to clear up a bit later tomorrow afternoon, so the entire day is far from a wash-out. Highs will be a bit cooler and more comfortable with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s throughout the region. North winds will add an extra chill at 15 to 20mph with locally higher gusts. This brings us to the weekend, where high pressure arrives from Canada and gives us a two day stretch of 80 degree temperatures and sunny skies...and it all comes just in time for Father's Day as well. The start of the next work week, however, is a little unsettled. Another low pressure system marches eastward, and its associated warm front is expected to lift through the area and give another chance for some showers and storms to our region. A cold front comes through on Tuesday for another round of showers and/or thunderstorms, but neither day is expected to have any weather comparable to what we're potentially in store for this evening. Highs for both days will be in the low to mid 80s.
Again, please be sure to stay posted for any additional weather updates from the NBC40 weather team on this developing weather story. Be safe out there, and have a great day.
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt
LINKS TO THE NBC40 WEATHER TEAM SOCIAL MEDIA OUTLETS:
Dan Skeldon Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/TheOfficialDanSkeldonPage?fref=ts
Dan Skeldon Twitter: https://twitter.com/DanSkeldonNBC40
Adam Rutt Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/pages/Meteorologist-Adam-Rutt/166868310052241
Adam Rutt Twitter: https://twitter.com/AdamRuttNBC40
Sydney Daniel Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SydneyDanielNbc40?fref=ts
Sydney Daniel Twitter: https://twitter.com/SydneyNBC40
Mike McEvoy Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/MeteorologistMikeMcEvoy?ref=ts&fref=ts
Mike McEvoy Twitter: https://twitter.com/MikeMcEvoyNBC40