Good Wednesday morning to you, South Jersey, and Happy Hump Day! A weak ridge of high pressure will wedge itself in-between the departing low pressure system from Monday and an approaching low from the Midwest (The latter of which I'll get to in more detail in just a bit). It's still just enough to give us a beautiful and sunny day from start to finish. A few bits of cloud cover may arrive later in the day, but that should be just about it in the way of "bad" weather. Highs will climb well into the mid 80s on the mainland, while coastal locales fall just short of the 80 degree mark with a west wind at 10 to 15mph. We'll remain mainly calm just beyond sunset, but things begin to change once we hit the overnight period. Cloud cover is expected to increase, and a few isolated showers are possible after midnight. Otherwise, we remain mainly dry and a bit mild with lows in the mid 60s. Winds shift to the east at 5 to 10mph.
That brings us to what we've been monitoring over the last three days: Thursday. The latest Storm Prediction Center (SPC) outlook does place all of South Jersey, the Delmarva Peninsula, and Chesapeake Bay communities (among other locales) under a moderate risk for severe weather. To put it another way, it's a 45% probability as of this post. That may change over the next 24 hours, but the sight of such a high percentage in our area is very rare and one that should be taken with a decent bit of seriousness. From the latest look at various model runs, the time frame in question still appears to be the afternoon and evening for the best chance at seeing some severe weather, but don't limit our chances to just that. A few storms may arrive sooner, or they may linger later. Either way, the biggest concern from this event is still the possibility of some very strong winds associated with these thunderstorms. Hail, heavy downpours, and an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out anywhere in the Mid-Atlantic as well. I know the "D" word (derecho) has been thrown around by some outlets, but I do have to side with Dan on this one...I don't believe that will be a threat in our area. I understand that we're all a little gun shy at the thought of something like that, but last year's derecho was a once in a generation event. I digress. Highs for the day will toe the line of 80 degrees, and if we see a peek of sunshine at some point, we may get slightly warmer and also increase the instability that will already be present in the atmosphere. Stay posted to Facebook, Twitter, and NBC40 for the latest updates on the upcoming potential for a rather severe weather threat.
Once we get to Friday, things do begin to calm down. A few more showers are possible, but the day itself should be more dry than wet. Highs remain in the upper 70s to low 80s on the mainland and low to mid 70s on the coast. The weekend will be our reward for getting through the rest of the work week. High pressure returns to the area, and we are treated to sunny skies and comfortable conditions. Highs for both days hit 80 west of the GSP and the mid 70s on the boardwalks. While the start of the next work week may be a bit unsettled, it does appear to be all right overall. There is a chance for a thunderstorm or two on Monday and Tuesday as a cold front arrives with highs in the low to mid 80s.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt