Good morning to you all, South Jersey! I hope you were able to take advantage of the GORGEOUS weather that we were able to experience this past weekend. We'll have one more dry and warm day today, and this may be our warmest day for a little while. With enough sunshine and a southerly wind both at the surface and aloft, temperatures will make a solid run towards the 60 degree mark. Mild conditions remain with us tonight, and cloud clover also increases through the overnight period. Rainfall begins to filter into the area after the midnight hour, though the heaviest rain doesn't arrive until tomorrow. Lows will fall into the mid 40s, and that will likely be recorded near the midnight hour as temperatures rise overnight. A cold front arrives on Tuesday, where we'll see widespread rainfall that may be heavy at times. Highs will make one more run into the mid to upper 50s, but once that frontal boundary passes, we notice a change in our weather.
High pressure returns for the middle and end of the week, and the jet stream is expected to dip well to our south with its arrival. As a result, we return to below average temperatures, though I don't think we'll be seeing the upper 30s like we did earlier last week. Mid 40s and partly to mostly sunny skies are forecasted for the region from Wednesday through Friday with light winds as well. Once we hit the weekend, we must renew our chances for some rain. Low pressure appears to miss us well to our north, but some impulses of energy and moisture may pinwheel around the center and bring some rainfall to the area Saturday night into the day on Sunday. Temperatures will also rebound nicely...near 50 for both days.
I'm also circling March 19th on my calendar at this point. You might be asking, 'Why that particular day?'. Well, at or around that date, we run into a rather familiar situation in our long term forecast. The EURO model indicates a coastal storm arriving and impacting the Mid-Atlantic with rain and...yes...snow (though for now, the snow threat remains to our south and west once again). The GFS model, however, shows absolutely nothing occurring on that day. So it's rather interesting to see such a strong discrepancy in the long term model runs and equally interesting to see the EURO stirring again, so to speak. Needless to say, don't take this as a verbatim forecast since there is so much uncertainty at this point, a lot can change over the next eight days. I'll be keeping a close eye on this one to see if either solution holds its ground or balks and follows suit with the other...especially over the next few days.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt