With one low pressure system finally out of the way, we can enjoy a break in the weather. Granted, this will be a one day break, but it will at least be mainly sunny today with seasonably warm temperatures. Overnight, clouds will increase ahead of our next coastal low that will arrive for the day on Wednesday. This storm as been posing a bit of a challenge to Dan and myself as we continue to monitor and update our forecasts accordingly. The latest model runs are showing some consistency, but two key factors remain in disagreement: Track and timing. If we see a more northerly track and a quicker change from rain to snow (similar to what the GFS is eluding to), then a modest accumulating snow event is possible. If the track is more southerly and the transfer to cold air is delayed (a la the EURO model), accumulation amounts will be a decent bit less. I do believe that some accumulating snow is possible, but I am conservatively leaning towards the more consistent EURO solution. Thus, no more than two to three inches of snow further north, while the cape and coastal points receive less than an inch. With such uncertainly this close to the zero hour, this forecast is certainly subject to modifications.
Valentine's Day and Friday appear to show marked improvements over Wednesday...both days will be partly to mostly sunny and warmer. Highs for both days will range in the mid to upper 40s with a few areas making a run at 50 degrees, especially on Friday. The break this time ends on Friday night, and not only do we see another coastal storm move into the general vicinity, but temperatures also take a sharp drop along with the jet stream. Highs for the weekend, and President's Day for that matter, will struggle to reach the mid 30s. The storm in question here holds even more uncertainly, but this is also due to the fact that it is five days from now. For now, we'll hold the mention for a chance of snow Saturday night into Sunday morning. Stay posted on Facebook and Twitter for updates from Dan and I on this entire week.
Have a great day!
- Meteorologist Adam Rutt