High pressure is barely hanging on this morning, and it will continue to depart to the north and east into Quebec. As it does, cloud cover will increase from the west and from the south ahead of two separate (at least for now) pieces of energy. The first is a low to the southwest along the Gulf Coast, the second is a disturbance along the Great Lakes. These two systems will eventually merge along the east coast and become the coastal storm that Dan and I have been watching for the last several days. Here are some of my thoughts as of this morning.
First off, rain and wind are just about 100% certain for a large majority of the day. Winds will gust at and over 35mph with even higher gusts (Likely up to 40mph) along the beaches. Rainfall amounts appear to be decent, but we've seen worse in the last 6 months. Most locations should expect at least half an inch to an inch of rainfall, but of course, local amounts may vary.
A brief switch to either a rain/snow mix or all snow is possible, but there are two major things to consider. First, it depends on when cold air arrives along the back edge of this system. Second, remnant moisture will need to be in place at the same time. If either is off, then all rain is possible.
Depending on the speed and timing of this event, minor coastal flooding cannot be ruled out as well. High tide along the ocean tomorrow will occur around 6pm, while the bays follow suit about an hour later.
Travel through the Northeast will be a complete mess, especially from NYC to all points north and east. If you have any plans to travel north, please be sure to take extra care, take extra time, and explore all options on whether travel is necessary or not. With many southern New England locations expected to receive at least a foot of snow, mass transit and airports in the area will likely see major delays.
So the take home message for South Jersey: We'll certainly see something, but it will be nothing compared to what will occur further north and east. Rain and wind are likely, but as Dan has eluded to and as I attempt to not downplay this event here, we have indeed seen worse.
Thankfully, this low will move through quickly, and the weekend appears to be sunnier all around. Some wind will remain on Saturday, but Sunday appears to be the calmer and warmer of the two days. We'll watch a cold front arrive on Monday that will give us some rain showers and a good chance at reaching the 50 degree mark for high temps. Beyond that, a more active weather patter arises starting with a disturbance that will arrive near or on Valentine's Day.
Have a great day everyone, and be sure to continue to follow Dan and I for the latest thoughts and updates.