Talk of a possible coastal storm next week? -

Talk of a possible coastal storm next week?

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While cool and dry weather rule the roost here in South Jersey the rest of the week...there's already talk of another "potential" coastal low for early next week. While computer model technology is great at pinpointing possible threats up to a week or more ahead of time, the availability of that technology allows "buzz" to start almost immediately on any potential storms(whether or not it's a credible threat). So here's my thoughts:

-Again, cool and dry the next 4 days(Wednesday-Saturday). Sunny Wednesday, partly sunny thereafter; highs in the low 50s every day.
-I am fairly confident there will be a low pressure developing over the ocean. While strength and track remain unclear, it does look to 1) remain farther offshore...and not come directly up the coast close to shore -and 2) it will be slow moving, and likely a feature on our weather map for a few days, say next Sunday-Tuesday(maybe Wednesday).
-With a slow, offshore track, I don't expect a heavy rain. And there's no cold air around so no snow with this either. Rather, occasional showers are possible Sunday-Tuesday, and a persistent onshore wind from the northeast. That means several days of *minor* tidal flooding are possible along our shore, and some wind/wave action on our battered beaches. 
-So this is certainly something to watch, especially since many are traveling next week, and the shape our coast is in considering the 1-2 punch of Sandy and last week's Nor'easter. However, I don't think this will be comparable to either of those storms. Rather, a slow-moving nuisance ocean low where rain may not be a big issue, but stubborn northeast winds, waves, and repeated minor tidal flooding rounds will make for a cool, brisk, and unsettled run up to Thanksgiving. 
-So not a major storm, but a meddlesome one that crawls along and has minor but longer lasting impacts on our weather.
-Once this initial low finally exits by Wednesday...colder air filters in towards Thanksgiving. Drier least initially...but there's also room for another low pressure to develop behind the first. So perhaps some rain or snow showers come Black Friday? But let's not get too far ahead of ourselves...

That's it for now. Again, cool and dry through Saturday. Have a great week!


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